



Slowly but surely things are turning around for industry in Sweden, but the recovery is slow going. According to SCB, production in industry increased by 3.7% in September of this year. The forecast for technology companies is pointing to an increase in production during 2010, but not sufficient enough to stop the decline in employment. Sweden´s GNP will decline by 4% in 2009 only to increase by 1.4% in 2010 according to EU´s forecasts.
On the European level GNP will fall by 4.1% and increase to + 0.7% in 2010 according to the EU. One of Europe´s biggest problems going forward is that the stimulus measures are weighing heavily on state finances and several countries will exceed the EU deficit limit of maximum 60% of the country´s GNP. The bright side is that the EU countries are now on their way out of the deep financial crisis, and that growth is slowly increasing but unemployment continues to rise. The EU Finance Ministers have reached agreement to phase out the EU countries´ stimulus measures in 2011. The conclusion is, however, that the Euro countries are not in recession any more. The USA officially came out of the recession at the half-year turn in 2009. The problem is that much of the incline was due to temporary stimulus measures that will take down the economy again once they expire. Unemployment is rising in the USA and was over 10% in October. In an economy that is held up to such a large extent by private consumption the GNP is severely affected when buying power is reduced. The FED is warning of a slow recovery. The fourth quarter could be a nail-biter. The fear among economists is that stimulus measures will be phased out too early and increasing the risk for a double dip. The fact that the budget deficit has reached record levels seems be a problem to be dealt with in the future.
China is powering on and is aiming towards continued strong growth and offensive exports. Even the other growth economies in Asia are starting to speed up. There is a risk that the Asian economies will begin to focus on Asia and leave the USA and EU and their economic problems.
Copenhagen summit approaching and affects the automotive industry
Outpost skirmishes prior to the Copenhagen summit are in full swing. The UN´s General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon is pressing hard for the meeting to produce an ambitious agreement. The summit will deal with "the biggest challenge of our time". Several climate debaters are sure that the meeting will be unsuccessful — perhaps they will agree to a program that the countries will not achieve later — but the summit will conclude with positive comments in order to save face.
Two problems that make the Copenhagen summit extra difficult
Two problems make the meeting extra difficult. The first is reaching agreement on how the industrial countries will finance the climate measures in developing countries and the other is that the USA is not politically ready for tangible measures even if the President would very much like to — The President must have the backing of the Congress. President Obama will bring to the table and unbacked initiative of 17% reduction of CO2 between the years 2005-2020. It is another way of counting and corresponds to 4% according to the EU´s method of calculation. There is much that indicates that a follow-up meeting will be suggested where the undertakings will be signed. It is clear that the transport sector will be affected by any agreements and the only questions are how fast and how much? The EU estimates that the cost of climate measures in the world will be SEK 1 000 billion per year after 2020.
New technology for the automotive industry
The world´s car manufacturers are preparing for new technology and better times but the drama continues. GM´s message that they had decided to retain Opel and break off negotiations with Magna was received by the world with astonishment. The message was received, in Germany, with huge disappointment by the union, Opel employees, Angela Merkel and likely by Russian politicians who viewed Opel as a chance to vitalize the Russian car industry. The reasons: possibly that GM is doing better, GM would like to retain German development competence, GM is fearful of technology transfer to Russia and losing its position on the Russian market.
GM posted a deficit during the third quarter, but less than expected. GM´s President says that it is counting on paying back government loans faster than planned and sales in the USA have increased. GM has repaid the German emergency loan.
Ford posted a profit for the third quarter 2009 and it was the first time in two years. Ford is counting on exceeding the financial objectives for 2009. The third quarter for its subsidiary Volvo Car Corporation was a substantial improvement compared with 2008. The deficit was SEK 950 million, which can be compared with SEK 3.2 billion in 2008.
Car discussions in Sweden
Sweden is dominated by car discussions about what is happening with Volvo Car Corporation and SAAB. The Chinese carmaker Geely has been chosen by Ford as the first prospective buyer of Volvo that Ford is negotiating with. Geely visited Sweden and Belgium and has indicated ambitious plans. The Crown Syndicate has also indicated its interest and wants to take part in the tender process. The outcome will be exciting, but the best sign is that VCC is selling better. VCC increased its sales by 15% in October compared with the same month in 2008.
The drama surrounding Saaab continues. Koenigsegg backed out and Saab is suddenly back to square one — searching for a credible purchaser. The reason for Koenigsegg´s about-face was that the process was being dragged out too long. GM´s board of directors made the decision to give Saab until the end of December to find a credible purchaser. The Swedish Government and Saab´s management visited GM´s board meeting and most likely influenced GM to give Saab a 30-day deadline. There are a number of interested parties that want to take over Saab, and now a quick assessment of the most interesting alternatives must be made. The Swedish Government has made it clear that they will only consider supporting alternatives that retain operations in Trollhättan. It is likely that the pressure on the Government will increase — Saab is losing money continuously, losing sales and suppliers are uneasy and are demanding quick payment. GM´s President Fritz Henderson resigned at the GM board meeting on December 1, but it is unclear if that is related to with the Saab decision.
Slight increase on the truck market taking place
Fast changes are also taking place within the truck industry. MAN´s President Håkan Samuelsson left the company suddenly. The reason is unknown and speculation of a closer association to Scania has started again. AB Volvo continues to experience a slow truck market but a slight increase is taking place. It is hoped that the American market will begin to experience an upturn relatively soon since the downturn started in 2007 and the need for new vehicles should increase. AB Volvo has also decided to terminate its unsuccessful collaboration with China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (CNHTC). Scania posted a profit for the third quarter but the volumes remain low and Scania would like to extend its crisis agreement with personnel regarding reduced working hours.
The world´s truck markets are starting to experience a careful recovery from very low volumes and analysts believe in a relatively prompt upturn. The USA and Western Europe are starting to recover, but in Eastern Europe it is going slower. South America is stable and Asia is starting to increase.
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